The past two years have brought about changes in production, exports, pricing, and various other factors that have forced the dairy industry to adapt and innovate. However Ben Laine, Senior Dairy Analyst at Terrain says the outlook for 2024 appears promising.
“The year 2022 was a bright spot in recent dairy market history,” explains Laine. “Strong export numbers, particularly in cheese, propelled the industry to impressive heights. The United States found itself in an unusual position, with robust cheese exports driving growth.”
However in 2023 we witnessed a slowdown in exports due to global market pricing. As the U.S. lost its competitive edge, milk prices began to plummet, reaching dismal lows. This drastic decline prompted numerous insurance payments and participation in Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) programs at unprecedented levels
“Producers are exploring new ways to maximize efficiency, especially in the face of constraints on milk production expansion,” says Laine. “This includes dairy-beef crossbreeding.”
Dairy-beef crossbreeding not only provides additional revenue streams through calf sales but also alleviates the burden of raising excess heifers. High cattle prices have spurred increased slaughter rates, benefiting dairy producers by trimming milk production and enabling them to focus on efficiency.
Laine says, “The outlook for 2024 appears promising in terms of milk prices. Futures indicate prices in the $18 to $19 range, with feed prices expected to decrease.”
He adds that despite lingering challenges such as high interest expenses and labor shortages, the industry should experience better margins, thanks to reduced feed costs.
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