Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist prepared and wrote the following report . This market update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Last week, cash cattle hit prices never seen before. Live cattle were $5 to $7/cwt higher and $8 to $14 higher on a dressed basis. Instead of seeing active bidding late in the week, country trade was mostly concluded by Thursday morning.
The Choice beef cutout broke through the $322 level of resistance and gained over $17 to average $324.49 last week. The Select cutout value was above $300. It is an understatement to say this is uncharted territory. Last week’s estimated harvest of 621,000 head was 48,000 more than the previous week and 50,000 less than last year.
April beef exports were 10% below last year at 111,416 metric tons, while value fell 18%. Through the first four months of 2023, beef exports were down 8% in volume. They were 21% lower in value compared to last year’s record pace. April beef export value equated to $441.70 per head of fed cattle harvested, down 10% from a year ago but the highest since July. April exports accounted for 15.7% of total beef production. While exports are down, so is U.S. beef production. The percentage of beef exported has remained steady.
Market hogs were steady to higher last week and Lean Hog futures contracts found firmer footing. Wholesale prices showed upward movement last week as well, to average $86.65. Some analysts think this is reason for optimism. Domestic demand for pork is lower when compared to the past two years but is at, and is maintaining, pre-COVID-19 levels.
Propelled by another month of widespread growth, April pork exports totaled 243,789 metric tons, up 15% from a year ago, while value increased 10% to $660.1 million. Year-to-date pork exports are 14% higher than last year. April pork export value equated to $67.56 per head harvested. This is up 13% from a year ago and the highest since May 2021. Exports accounted for 32% of total April pork production. The estimated harvest for last week was 2.363 million, making it 335,000 head higher than the previous week and 3,000 below the same week last year.
Exports of U.S. lamb muscle cuts totaled 153 metric tons in April, down 13% from year ago, while export value fell 20% to just over $1 million. Exports to Mexico more than doubled but these gains were offset by lower shipments to the Caribbean. Through April, lamb exports were still 22% ahead of last year’s pace with value up 10% to $4.7 million. The USDA estimates 35,000 sheep and lambs were harvested last week. That’s 6,000 more than the previous week and 2,000 more than the same week last year. The carcass cutout value was higher last week, finishing Friday at $511.39
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