By Jeff Swenson, Livestock & Meat Specialist at DATCP
Fed cattle demand is strong, but the real tell will be what prices do next week. This is the last week of cattle buying to fill Labor Day holiday orders. Orders from retailers indicate grocery stores will be featuring beef in September, and that will help with demand and hopefully keep beef prices from working lower. There isn’t a guarantee that prices will continue their current momentum, but consumers have proven they want beef, whether it’s eaten at home or in restaurants. Beef exports have been disappointing recently with the latest weekly update reporting 20,500 metric tons of US beef sold to foreign buyers. While the average carcass weight dropped a pound last week, this week’s report shows them 6 pounds higher at 882 pounds. Any auction market manager or packer buyer will tell you there are plenty of heavy cattle coming to town. Dairy breed steers weighing over 1,600 pounds are still easy to find in Wisconsin. The USDA will release a Cattle on Feed Report Friday (8/21.) Trade expectations are for a slightly higher cattle on feed number and a marketing number less than 1 percent higher than a year ago. The number of cattle placed into feedlots in July is expected to be about 6 percent higher than a year ago. Placements had been lagging compared to last year as cattle feeders were trying to empty their lots before they could purchase feeder cattle and restock. Feeder cattle demand and prices have been good now. One Wisconsin feeder cattle order buyer told me he calculated the breakeven price on some yearling steers he saw sell this week at $118.00/cwt. There is obviously optimism in the market considering cash cattle bids are $103.000 to $108.00/cwt this week. #
Pork exports have been on a good pace. Exports for the first half of 2020 were 24 percent higher than last year’s record sales. June was the first month this year that exports were below 2019 levels. Still, 24 percent of the country’s pork production was exported. Overall during the first six months of the year, 31.5 percent of all pork produced was sold for export. January through June export value per head harvested was $63.61. Exports were higher to China/Hong Kong, the Caribbean, Honduras and Taiwan and were sharply higher for Albania and Ukraine according to the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF.) The low price and the weakening dollar is making US raised pork attractive on the global market. While moving pork oversees helps with the large supply, it hasn’t helped pork producers be profitable. The latest data shows farrow to finish operators losing $36 per head. #
The extent of crop damage in Iowa due to the derecho storm isn’t fully known. There are some crop tours taking place this week throughout the country and will give some of the first estimates yields in that area. Farmers had been growing what was expected to be a record yield corn crop. The loss to the farmers impacted is devastating, yet there is little chance it will cause tight supplies and sharply higher corn prices. Ninety seven percent of corn in Wisconsin was silked as of August 16. That is four weeks ahead of last year and eight days ahead of the five-year average. Corn condition in Wisconsin improved by three percentage points to 84 percent rated good to excellent. Soybeans blooming in the state was 96 percent. Very similar to corn, the crop is running 4 weeks ahead of last year and eight days ahead of the five-year average. Wisconsin soybeans are rated 85 percent good to excellent, two percentage points higher than last week. All hay condition is rated 81 percent good to excellent in Wisconsin with third cutting of alfalfa 72 percent complete. Pasture conditions remain the same as the previous week with 68 percent rated good to excellent. #
Fed cattle prices for beef breed steers ranged from $103.00 to $108.00/cwt with extreme tops to $110.00/cwt. High yielding Holstein steers were mostly $1.00 higher at $90.00 to $96.00/cwt. Cows were mixed, but mostly steady at mid-week with the bulk bringing $48.00 to $62.00/cwt with some above. Holstein bull calves were steady at $55.00 to $155.00/head with some individuals selling higher. #
Wisconsin milk production last month was 1 percent higher than July 2019. The 1.26 million cows milked in the state was equal to June 2020, but 11,000 head less than July 2019. #
Leave a Reply