Farmers may be forced to deal with higher fertilizer costs for several more years, according to a new report. The “Knowledge Exchange” study from CoBank shows global supply challenges and international conflicts will continue to put pressure on nutrient markets. And even though prices are down from previous record highs, fertilizer prices are expected to remain at historical levels through 2028.
If you are a farmer who likes to plan ahead, this outlook means fertilizer costs could remain an important factor in your crop budgeting and purchasing decisions.
Global conflicts continue to affect fertilizer supplies
The Middle East remains a major source of fertilizer products and raw materials for the global market. The continuing disruptions in that region can affect supplies of sulfur, ammonia, and urea. These are important ingredients in fertilizer production. Also, reduced production capacity and transportation challenges are raising concerns about how much fertilizer will be available in the coming years.
“The ripple effect of the Middle East conflict, compounded with tight supplies, will create higher fertilizer prices and complicate sourcing well into 2027 and beyond,” Jacqui Fatka, farm supply and biofuels economist with CoBank said.
Fatka said farmers and other buyers are already responding to higher prices by changing when and how much fertilizer they purchase.
“Availability and affordability concerns have already triggered demand destruction and deferral, making the price outlook increasingly difficult to predict,” she explained.
She adds that a recovery will depend on greater stability in the Middle East, lower sulfur prices, and changes in global fertilizer demand.
Farmers look for ways to stretch fertilizer dollars
Many farmers continue to apply nutrients because maintaining crop yields remains a priority. But rather than make across-the-board cuts, growers are increasingly turning to tools that can help them use fertilizer more efficiently.
A few of those practices:
- Soil testing to better understand nutrient needs
- Variable-rate applications to adjust fertilizer based on field conditions
- Precision nutrient management to improve efficiency and reduce waste
Some farmers are also reducing phosphate and potassium applications while maintaining nitrogen use. However, experts caution that cutting nutrient applications for too long could eventually affect soil fertility and crop performance.
Fertilizer purchases could shift to spring
If prices remain elevated heading into future growing seasons, farmers may decide to delay fertilizer purchases or move more of their applications to spring. This could create additional challenges for agricultural retailers and cooperatives, particularly if more farmers are trying to secure fertilizer at the same time.
The timing of your purchases could become another important management decision as you weigh current prices against the possibility of future market changes. But for now, the fertilizer market will remain closely tied to global trade, production capacity, and stability in major supply regions.
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