USDA’s latest supply and demand report points to a mixed outlook for U.S. agriculture, with higher corn and soybean production and exports offset by weaker wheat, dairy and overall meat production forecasts.
Before the report was released, John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing told Mid-West Farm Report, “This is the goalpost center as we move forward here going into the next handful of months, but we haven’t seen any real data from the USDA to change things since we got these numbers back in May and then the June acreage number that we got at the end of of June as well. The other little outlying factor is we’re going to get the FSA data as well on Wednesday. Last year, this was when we had the big jump in corn acres.” Heinberg says there were rumblings that a possible increase in corn and soybean acres could happen, and the new August report showed that is exactly what happened.
Corn
U.S. corn production is now estimated at 16-billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from last month, with reduced yields likely to offset a 1.2 million-acre increase in harvested area. Corn use is expected to increase 75 million bushels to 16.3 billion. U.S. corn exports are also expected to rise to 3.3 billion bushels, thanks in part to increased global demand and Ukraine’s reduced exports.
Soybeans
Soybean production is now projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 44 million because of 1.4 million more projected soybean acres. The soybean crush estimate is up 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion bushels, driven by robust crush margins and stronger demand for soybean meal and oil.
Dairy
On the dairy side, the milk production forecast remains unchanged for this year at 236.6 billion pounds, but lowered for 2027 to 238.1 billion pounds due to less growth. Expected reduced exports of lactose and nonfat dry milk, along with increased shipments of butter, cheese, and milk proteins, have USDA expecting fewer overall exports on a skim-solids basis. USDA’s 2026 all-milk price was lowered to $19.85 per hundredweight, with lower Class IV and higher Class III prices. The 2027 all-milk price is expected to be $19.80 per hundredweight.
Wheat
USDA estimates also call for lower wheat supplies, smaller ending stocks, and a projected average price of $6.20 per bushel. Although U.S. production is expected to fall 22%, the global outlook calls for higher supplies.
Meat
The August supply and demand forecast also predicts total red meat and poultry production will be lower than July, with lower steer and heifer slaughter numbers but steady pork, broiler, and turkey production totals. Egg production is also unchanged from July.
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