Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
The summer rally we typically see in lean hog futures prices has not materialized. While the rally has happened as late as
early July, it is uncommon. It will take an increase in the cutout value to spur higher futures prices. Despite being at the heart of grilling season, pork demand hasn’t been high enough for appreciable gains in wholesale prices. The pork cutout value averaged $96.45 last week, making it $3.18 lower. Hog and carcass weights are not decreasing as they usually do during the summer, so even with harvest about equal to last year, there is more pork on the market. Last week’s harvest was estimated at 2.402 million head, 20,000 fewer than the previous week and 31,000 fewer than last year. Forty-pound feeder pigs averaged $90.90/head with early weaned pigs averaging $55.26/head.
Pork production is expected to increase based on the heavier carcass weights and continue to increase in 2027, according to the latest WASDE report. Exports are strong but are expected to level off. Iowa has regained pseudorabies-free status after a successful containment effort. A second round of testing did not reveal any additional cases, confirming the virus did not spread from the small commercial swine facility where it was detected.
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