Less Corn, More Beans Projected… Fertilizer Remains A Question

As the Midwest approaches its spring planting window, agricultural markets were bracing for a critical data dump from the USDA. The quarterly grain stocks and prospective plantings reports is the first official baseline for the 2026-27 crop year. But market advisor John Heinberg warns the numbers arrive at a period of intense global uncertainty.

Heinberg, with Total Farm Marketing, suggests that while the report offers a necessary starting point, its timing may not fully account for recent geopolitical shifts, including the recent conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

“Some things can change very, very quickly in this report, but it at least gives us a baseline that we’re going to start working with for the next year’s corn crop,” Heinberg noted during an interview with Mid-West Farm Report.

Producers surveyed across the United States intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from last year, according to the Prospective Plantings report by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states. The report expects acreage decreases of 300,000 acres in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. If realized, the area of corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record.

Soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% from last year. The report expects acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin expects record high acreage.

Market analysts anticipated the shift in the “acre mix” for the upcoming season. However, these projections are complicated by high input costs. Persistent issues with fertilizer availability and pricing continue to weigh on producers, particularly in the northern tier and fringe states. Heinberg believes the “long-toothed” nature of the fertilizer crisis may impact the market well into 2027.