Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Hog prices in 2025 recovered from three years of low and less than breakeven prices. Cash prices ended the year about $2/cwt higher than in December 2024. The pork cutout value was $90.87 on January 3, hit a high of $119.75 the week ending June 20. It was $99.76 on Friday, December 19. Year-to-date hog harvest is 1.5% lower than last year, with pork production trailing 2024 by 1.1%. Live and carcass weights spent much of the year heavier than 2024, adding to pork production.
The WASDE report lowered its price estimate for the first quarter of 2026 based on recent prices. Later year forecasts were unchanged. The first quarter live hog price is forecasted to average $64/cwt, increasing to $70/cwt in quarter two with an average of $71/cwt for the third quarter. Pork should benefit from an increased interest in protein by consumers next year. Dr. Lee Schultz, Economist with Ever.Ag, expects profit for farrow to finish producers to average $10/head in 2026, half of the $21/head realized this year. Exports were lower through August. Mexico continued to be the lead buyer of U.S. raised pork. With about 30% of all pork being exported, international markets will continue to be a focus in 2026
Leave a Reply