Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Cattle
The Five Area fed steer price was $196.80 to open 2025 and was $227.96 on December 19. Prices reached their high during the week ending August 22 when the weighted average was $244.92. Cash prices were strong after Labor Day when prices typically trend lower. The seasonal ramp up to the winter holidays was hampered when beef hit the news in November. The bigger news is the resiliency of domestic beef demand, however. Concerns regarding consumers substituting beef with lower cost proteins did not materialize overall. January will be a telling time as beef demand typically decreases. If substitution occurs, it will likely be noticed early in 2026. Customers are reporting a more consistent beef eating experience than in the past. So far in 2025, 12% of cattle have graded Prime compared to just 4% in 2014.
Choice And Prime
More cattle are grading Choice as well. Cattle grading Choice or Prime has increased from 70% in 2014 to 84% in 2025. More time spent on feed resulting in heavier cattle is one factor in the increase. Cattle harvest through December 19 is 6.9% lower than 2024, with beef production 4.1% lower. Beef exports, according to the most recent available data, have been running 14% lower than last year and imports are 15% higher. These factors accounted for there being only a small drop in beef availability per capita – 58.9 pounds in 2025 compared to 59.1 pounds in 2024. Most of the beef imported to the U.S. is in the form of lean trimmings for grinding.
Beef cow harvest is 18% lower than 2024 year-to-date. The lower culling rate may bring on a lower than anticipated decline in U.S. beef cow numbers in the January Cattle Inventory Report. Lean trim prices hit record highs in 2025 due to the lower non-fed harvest and remained at record levels much of the year. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report raised anticipated beef production for 2026, citing expected higher cattle weights. Fed steer prices during the first quarter of 2026 are projected to average $230/cwt according to the report. Prices are expected to peak during the third quarter and average $236/cwt.
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