Do I Have Enough Replacements?

Dairy producers may need to take a closer look at their replacement numbers in the coming years, as new research from CoBank shows the U.S. heifer inventory is set to hit a 20-year low before rebounding.

According to Geiger’s analysis, the number of dairy replacements entering the milking herd will drop by about 357,000 head in 2025 and 440,000 head in 2026, nearly 700,000 fewer animals compared to previous years. The recovery isn’t expected until 2027, when replacement numbers begin to rise again.

The decline is tied to changing breeding strategies. Over the last five years, conventional dairy semen sales have fallen nearly 47 percent, while the use of beef semen on dairy cows has climbed 58 percent as farmers diversify to boost profitability.

“They’ve pivoted so quickly to that product,” Geiger explains. “They’ve almost made too many beef-on-dairy calves, and now we have a shortage of dairy replacements.”

With fewer heifers available, Geiger predicts higher replacement costs and a continued focus on balancing milk and beef production strategies.

“Our dairy cows are getting older. At some point, they all move to their second career, which is beef,” he says. “And so I think for the first time in many farmers’ careers, we’ve really got to run some spreadsheets or hand calculate this: Do I have enough replacements? And how many beef on dairy calves can I make to maximize my revenue?”