Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Cattle
The five-area weekly weighted average price for beef breed steers was $229.96/cwt last week, making them $3 lower. It is quite a change from the $240s we saw in August, but current prices are still $43/cwt higher than this time last year. The lower trend has certainly caused concern for cattle feeders with feedlots full of record high-priced feeder cattle. While the market has been dealing with increased volatility, there are signs the beef sector is seeking a bottom and level of support. Wholesale prices are an important factor to watch given current conditions. The Choice beef cutout value has fallen $51 in September. The cutout value was $9.46 lower last week, averaging $367.13, and was lower coming into this week. This brought speculation it could test the key level of support of $360, but prices have firmed midweek.
Many analysts expect fed cattle prices to firm if wholesale prices hold steady or increase. It goes without saying that cattle supply and harvest numbers will influence prices. There are varying opinions whether herd expansion has begun, but the data does not give evidence of heifer retention. USDA’s midyear Cattle report showed the lowest beef replacement heifer inventory in the history of that report, meaning cattle numbers won’t increase until 2027 at the earliest. The 2025 U.S. calf crop is projected to be the lowest since 1941, leaving feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots the lowest on record as well. Last week’s estimated harvest of 557,000 head exceeded expectations. The total was 2,000 more than the previous week and 54,500 fewer than last year.
Top Quality
Top quality steers and heifers were fully $2 lower, bringing $217-$236/cwt, with a few to $238/cwt. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $200-$217/cwt. High grading Holstein steers were steady to weak at $192-$218/cwt, with some higher. Lower grading steers brought $168-$191/cwt. Silage fed, under finished, or heavy dairy breed steers brought $90-$167/cwt. Dairy Beef cross steers were steady to lower, bringing $175-$227, with some higher. Cows were mixed. Most cows brought $110- $146/cwt with a few selling into the low $160s. Lower yielding cows brought $65-110/cwt. Doubtful health and thin cows brought up to $65/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were mixed, selling from $700-$1,250/head. Dairy breed heifer calves brought $300-$700/head, with some higher. Beef and Beef Cross calves were higher, from $700 to $1,500, with some as high as $1,780/head. Light and lower quality calves sold up to $60.
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