The following article has been prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry, as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports. Edited by Mid-West Farm Report.
Classic supply and demand factors will dictate cattle and beef prices for the next two months. Wholesale beef prices were higher on Monday, and cattle were selling steady to higher last week.
Last week’s holiday-shortened harvest volume is responsible for buoying prices this week. USDA estimates 475,000 cattle were harvested last week compared to 521,000 during the week of July 4th last year.
Cattle supplies have decreased, especially in the north. Packers are working to cover their needs and seeking cattle.
In an article for Beef Magazine online, Oklahoma State Ag Economist Derrell Peel wrote, “Total beef production was down just 0.2% year over year in the first quarter of 2025. However, through the first 10 weeks of the second quarter, beef production was down 4.3% year over year compared to last year.”
This will support the market. The Choice Beef cutout value was $5.11 lower on July 3 at $389.75, but pushed back to $391.00 on Monday and was $393.04 on Tuesday.
There are signs that heifer retention has increased. Heifers in feedlots on April 1 had the largest percentage decline in relation to feedlot inventories in the past five years. Fewer heifers in feedlots will further tighten feedlot inventory.
Nearby live and feeder cattle contracts hit record highs Tuesday. Beef exports were 12% lower in May compared to last year. Export value was 11.5% lower, which was the lowest in 18 months. January to May beef exports were 5% lower, while value declined 3%. May beef export value equated to $406.05 per head of fed cattle harvested, 1% lower than a year ago.
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