Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax, informed U.S. Meat Export Federation members that the cattle herd rebuilding may finally be gaining traction.
“We’ve got more hooks than we have cattle to fill those hooks, and we see that not only at the fed cattle level, but we see it at the non-fed level as well. So non-fed slaughter, non-fed cow and bull slaughter has declined significantly, as you would expect,” he explains. “So we’re stabilizing the herd from a lack of harvest of the cows.”
Blach was the keynote speaker at the USMEF Spring Conference this week in Fort Worth.
“We’re seeing very gradual, slow, slow, slow expansion, but it does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd,” he says. “So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies really are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much.”
Blach notes the price increase in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom says robust global demand shows the industry needs to stay focused on the long term.
“We’ve seen a lot of disruption the first quarter of 2025 — the disruption in: are tariffs on, are they off? Who will be affected? Who won’t? This is just the nature of the market that we’re in. The reality is that demand continues,” Halstrom says. “Demand is record-breaking on both beef and pork in a variety of markets. So we have the ability to adjust as needed.”
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