Prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The Market Update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
Cattle
Cattle markets were lower last week after showing steady gains in June. It is common for prices to take a step back after July 4th as demand usually softens through mid-August. In a typical year, the best chance for fed cattle prices to turn higher would be leading up to Labor Day. The Choice carcass cutout value was $5.18 lower last week, averaging $324.78. The average retail price of beef in June was $8.18/pound, up only slightly when compared to May.
Ground beef prices increased 1.9% month over month, while steak prices were 0.9% lower. Carcass weights have decreased by about 13 pounds from a high of 924 pounds in late May. This, too, is following the usual seasonal pattern when heat begins to impact feedlot gains. The estimated harvest last week of 601,000 jumped 79,000 head from the holiday week and was 32,000 head fewer than a year ago. Heat causes transportation challenges, so auction market runs are typically more sporadic this time of year.
A monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report was released last week, and USDA raised its beef production estimates for both 2024 and 2025. The agency also increased the estimated fed beef steer price for 2025 by $2, expecting an average of $191/cwt. A Cattle on Feed report was released this week after this report was prepared. Expectations are for an on-feed number 1% higher than a year ago, with placements coming in 3% lower. Futures markets were quiet this week, which is a good indication traders believe the pre-report estimates are correct and the report will bring no surprises.
Cattle Prices
High Choice and Prime beef breed steers were mostly steady but showed some weakness, bringing $183-$195/cwt with some packages reported at $200/cwt. Choice steers and heifers ranged from $170-$183/cwt with mixed grading and those likely to grade Select bringing $152-$170/cwt. Holstein steers were steady. High grading steers brought $164-$177/cwt with some fancy steers to $182/cwt.
Lower grading steers brought $130-$164/cwt. Silage-fed, under-finished or heavy dairy breed steers brought $75-$130/cwt. Dairy x Beef steers were higher, bringing $140-$198/cwt. Cows were $1-$2 lower. Most of the cows brought $102-$127/cwt with some to the low $140s/cwt. Lower yielding cows brought $75-$102/cwt, with doubtful health and thin cows bringing up to $75/cwt. Dairy breed bull calves were fully steady from $200-$400/head with some heavier, well-managed calves selling to $700. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady to lower, selling to $950.
Hogs
It is another week of mostly bearish news in the pork market. Starting with the positive, the pork cutout value was $1.28 higher last week, averaging $95.85. The cutout was posted at $98.29 on Monday of this week. Cash hog prices were $1.50/cwt lower last week, however. USDA estimated a harvest of 2.386 million hogs last week, an increase of 352,000 over the previous week and 48,000 more than the same week last year. Pork averaged $4.88/pound in May, down just under 1% from May 2023. Pork production this year is expected to be 3% higher than 2023 according to last week’s WASDE report. 2025 production is expected to be 1.4% higher than 2024. This will cause added strain on the market if realized. The average price of market hogs in 2025 is expected to be relatively unchanged from 2024. This is not good news for farmers, who have been struggling at current price levels.
Lamb
Market lamb prices were steady to $10/cwt lower last week. Cash prices have now dipped below those seen this time last year. We would expect prices to decline now based on seasonality. Last year the market moved counter-seasonally as the supply of market lambs was lower than they are currently. The carcass cutout, posted at $465.53, was steady with the previous Friday. The cutout was $435.74 this time last year. Weekly harvest levels remain higher than last year. Last week’s estimated total of 35,000 sheep and lambs was 7,000 more than the holiday-interrupted week and 3,000 more than last year. Sheep and lamb harvest year-to-date is 4% higher than last year, with lamb and mutton production 1% higher.
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