Discussions regarding the Farm Bill are currently underway though it may be some time before anything is written. Randy Russell, president of The Russell Group, discusses the three big factors everyone should keep in mind as negotiations continue: ag economic environment, budget environment and political environment.
Compared to past years, the current farm economic environment looks good, Russell says. He references a USDA report in saying that the 2022 net cash income was at $199 billion compared to today’s net cash income of $150 billion. Both are higher than the 2002 cash income of $127 billion.
The political environment, with the most evenly divided congress in history, will make passing any piece of legislation difficult, Russell explains. He notes there are only 35 members of congress who represent districts that are primarily rural. In order to pass a bill, over 180 members from urban and suburban areas will need to back legislation.
Before any real progress can be made on the 2023 Farm Bill, the national debt ceiling needs to be dealt with, Russell continues. Whatever happens with the debt ceiling will significantly impact the amount of money available for programs in the Farm Bill. Projections place budget deficits at $1-3 trillion annually for the next 10 years.
The timeline for when the Farm Bill is passed has yet to be determined. Russell says it will likely be completed at the end of the year or extended into the first quarter of next year. Until then, he says to expect conversations regarding the nutrition program in the Farm Bill, such as debates over working requirements for nutrition assistance.
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