The following report was prepared and written by Jeff Swenson, DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist. The market update draws information from several sources, including trade publications, radio broadcasts, agricultural news services, individuals involved in the industry as well as USDA NASS and AMS reports.
The USDA released its Monthly Livestock Slaughter report last week showing beef production in October 2 percent higher than the same month in 2021. Heifer harvest is still running 5 percent higher year-to-date. Beef cow slaughter is out pacing 2021 by 13 percent. Beef cow harvest has been higher than last year for 70 consecutive weeks. Cow plus heifer harvest has made up 51 percent of the total this year, making it the highest percentage since 1986.
According to University of Missouri Ag Economist Scott Brown — Regions 6 and 7 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska) beef cow harvest is up 30-34 percent year-to-date. Region 5, which includes Wisconsin as well as Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio, is seeing beef cow harvest 10.9 percent below 2021 year-to-date.
The estimated harvest total for last week was an impressive 581,000 head given the holiday. It was 93,000 head below the previous week, but 13,000 more than Thanksgiving week last year. The Choice beef carcass cutout value finished last week at $251.83 and that was $3.04 lower than the previous week.
Pork production was 1 percent lower in October compared to last year in both pounds and head harvested. Live hog weights for the month averaged 288 pounds, unchanged from a year ago. Per capita pork supply is expected to be 51.4 pounds this year.
Pork production is down, but imports are up 20 percent and exports are down 9 percent; thus the per capita pork supply is 0.3 pounds more than last year. While most of the imported pork is coming from Canada, every major foreign supplier, except Poland, has been shipping more pork to the U.S. this year according to a Nov. 28 web article from the National Hog Farmer.
The pork carcass cutout value continues to decline, losing $5.81 to finish last week at $87.63. Pork belly prices are the main cause of the price decline. Ham primals are currently higher than bellies – something that rarely happens except during some winter holiday seasons. The last time hams were higher than bellies was briefly in December 2020.
Last week’s estimated harvest total was 2.223 million hogs, compared to 2.559 million the previous week and 2.555 million Thanksgiving week a year ago.
Many of the weekly sheep and lamb reports were not published last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The lamb carcass cutout value was $545.16 on Tuesday this week – an improvement over the $538 seen Nov. 18. Seasonal demand is helping lamb prices.
Lamb and mutton production in October was 9 percent below the same month last year. The average live weight was 122 pounds, up one pound from a year ago. Estimated harvest for Thanksgiving week was 29,000 head, and that was 11,000 below the previous week and 5,000 less than the same week last year. Cash fed lambs are below the prices seen a year ago, but still above the five-year average. Market lambs brought $110 to $124/cwt with some lighter lambs selling to $150 cwt.
The price spread between Choice and Select beef at the wholesale level is causing a wide price range for fed cattle as packers seek cattle likely to grade Choice or higher. High-yielding, high-grading cattle brought $125 to $152/cwt. Groups of high Choice and Prime lots sold from $153 to $163/cwt.
Choice Holstein steers were steady bringing $109 to $135/cwt with high grading Holstein steers bringing selling into the low $140’s. Silage fed, under finished or heavy dairy breed steers brought $75 to $109/cwt. Dairy x Beef steers were bringing $105 to $146/cwt.
Cows were steady. A bulk of the cows brought $45 to $70/cwt with some selling into the low 80’s. Doubtful health and thin cows were bringing $45/cwt and down.
Dairy breed bull calves were steady to higher, bringing $50 to $135/cwt with heavier, well cared for calves up to $180/cwt. Beef and Beef Cross calves were steady, selling to $350/cwt.
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