Despite obstacles in 2019 with trade tensions, meat producers had a positive export outlook in 2019 with more opportunities coming in the future.
Joe Schuele, vice president of communications for the U.S. Meat Export Federation, said there were record beef exports last year at $8.3 billion. He anticipated 2019 would end with similar numbers. Schuele noted an increase in pork exports as well. Although the industry had a slow start to the year with a 20 percent tariff imposed by Mexico and the retaliatory tariffs from China, he predicted those export numbers to be up by nearly 10 percent compared to last year.
“Despite all of the negative news, meat exports are still going pretty strong and adding a lot of value for producers,” Schuele said.
African Swine Fever caused fluctuations in the market since it entered China in August of 2018.
“Everybody was expecting a big pork shortage,” Schuele said. “It was actually the reverse of that. We had a lot of culling of healthy animals because there was panicked selling. Now, we’ve worked through that inventory. The shortage really started to show this summer, so China is facing a pork deficit.”
U.S. pork producers stand to benefit as the industry is well-positioned to help fill that need. In other markets, Schuele said Mexico has recovered nicely, but the numbers are still not as high as they were prior to retaliatory duties.
“Mexico’s demand for pork has really allowed our industry to expand,” Schuele said. “To have the ribs and bacon, loins and other cuts we really enjoy here domestically, we need a strong and consistent outlet for the other parts of the carcass, and Mexico has been a great trading partner from that standpoint.”
Although trade deals are currently showing promise, Schuele said this year of tension is proof as to why the U.S. Meat Export Federation is always looking for new markets and does not just focus on the top buyers.
Dairy farmers can also benefit from new movement on the markets. Most of the beef exports are from fed cattle, but with BSE-related restrictions removed, there are more opportunities to move beef from older cattle into international markets. There have been strong opportunities in Mexico, the Middle East, Central and South America, and even Japan in the past year, according to Schuele.
“We can move some of the muscle cuts, but also products like mountain chain tripe and tongues from older cattle,” Schuele said. “Of course, Japan buys a huge percentage of their tongues from fed cattle, and now they are able to buy tongues from older cattle as well, so we see added value there.”
Expressing optimism with trade barrios coming down, Schuele looked forward to seeing the impacts in the markets. He said once tariffs come off all beef cuts to Japan, the United States will be put on an even playing field with competing countries like Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
“Japan is already our biggest market,” Schuele said. “We did $3.7 dollars of red meat to Japan, but we see that getting up toward $5 billion within the next five years or so, once those tariffs come down. That will not be just because we will now be in a better competitive position, but there is also the Japanese consumer will have better access. We’ll see red meat consumption grow as they have more affordable access.”
He compared exports to Japan with that in Korea. Many years ago, the United States struggled to move beef into Korea, but this year, that market was worth almost $2 billion.
-Kaitlyn Riley
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